DETERMINING Nigeria’s exact population has always been controversial. Since independence from Britain in 1960, Nigerians have never fully agreed amongst themselves on just how many they really are, or which region of the country has the highest or lowest numbers. On the side, there have also been needless ethnic and religious dimensions to the matter, often exploited by politicians for winning elections and appropriating resources.
However, genuine worries are now being expressed over the future implications of the rapidly increasing population of the world’s most populous black nation. There are fears that unless the federal government regulates the country’s population in a decisive way, Nigeria may become chronically over populated by 2040, less than 30 years away. Although, Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus predicted a long time ago that the world’s population runs the risk of overtaking its resources, the postulation may sooner than later stare Nigeria in the face, if nothing is done in the long term.
According to a survey – Resources for the Awareness of Population Impacts on Development (RAPID) – presented at the last National Family Planning Conference held in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory, in 1963, both Nigeria and Britain had the same population size of 56 million. By 2011 however, Nigeria’s population stood at 167 million and Britain’s, 62 million. Between 1963 and 2011 (48 years), Nigeria’s population tripled and with sustained fertility of 5.7 and the growth rate of three per cent, its population could double in less than 24 years.
According to the data released by the National Population Commission (NPC) after the last head count in 2006, Nigeria’s total population was estimated at 140, 431, 790 million. The commission’s chairman at that time, Dr Samuila Danko Makama, observed that the population had doubled what it was in 1991, when the controversial census figure was 81 million. He also disclosed that the country’s population rose from a little over 140.4 million in 2006 to its present figure, representing a yearly growth rate of 3.2 percent or 5.6 million people per annum.
Makama predicted that, given the agency’s new projection of the country’s population growth rate of 3.2 percent, the same rate the NPC used in the 1991 and 2006 census exercises, Nigeria’s population could hit 221,392,163 by July 1, 2020. He was quoted as saying that given the country’s “astronomical progression in population, levels of governance should ultimately focus on nation building initiatives, with a view to expanding public infrastructure in proportion to growth in population, thereby avoiding social crisis in the future.”
President of the Association for Reproduction and Family Health (ARFH), Prof. Oladapo Ladipo is of the opinion that with the 5.7 fertility rate and about three per cent annual growth rate, Nigeria’s current population would have been 359 million by 2040.
“So, if you think about the ratio of people who are in the working-age category, to people who are too young or old to work (dependents), then the more money, the harder it is to grow your economy. Here’s why: Because you are spending all of your money just trying to help these dependents survive (feeding them, giving them the basics they need to survive), then you do not have any money left over to invest in economic activities, business, and more education. But if you have fewer dependents (fewer children), then the working-age population can spend more money on other things, like investments that make the economy grow.”
Indeed, the Federal Government has also acknowledged that increasing population poses considerable threat to the nation’s food security and economy. At a sensitisation programme and exhibition on the socio-economic uses of tiger nut and walnut in Abuja recently, the Minister of Science and Technology, Prof. Ita Ewa, affirmed that population explosion has, indeed, led to economic difficulties in many countries, including Nigeria. He submitted that Nigeria’s continued dependence on crude oil had aggravated its predicament.
His words: “The current global phenomenon of population explosion, coupled with degrading resources, has led to environmental and economic woes, putting most countries and our nation in particular, under threatening challenges of food security, poverty, diseases and unemployment.” The development, he averred, had also led to the flooding of Nigerian markets with imported goods, while the country exports crude oil as its major foreign exchange earner.
He pointed out: “The implication is that we are exporting labour or jobs to other countries, while serving as a market place for them, and this has aggravated our predicament of increasing unemployment and poverty incidence. The current situation, where we import virtually everything and export mostly crude oil, negates our aspirations for economic emancipation. The Nigerian nation is, therefore, at a critical point in its quest for economic growth and development.”
Ewa also observed that economic diversification would mitigate the effect of population explosion, stressing that agricultural productivity and wealth creation would be achieved if the right support were given to the industrial and manufacturing sectors.
He continued: “The basis upon which developed countries built rapid economic and industrial growth, is dominantly the application of science, technology and innovation, which enabled them export a strong mix of value-added goods and services. There is actually no shortcut to economic growth rather than the application of technology.”
Reacting to available data on Nigeria’s demographic figures, the Regional Head of Research, Africa, Standard Chartered Bank, Razia Khan, said the excitement over the new population figures was uninformed, given the fear that the nation’s economy had not been growing in the same proportion with the population.
She said: “A lot of the excitement about the scale that Nigeria’s future growth represents, stems from projections for its population. The UN estimates that by 2050, Nigeria will be the fourth most populous country in the world. Certainly, if the current population growth rate is 3.2 percent per annum, the potential growth of the economy is significant - given that it is dominated by consumption, and growth in the non-oil sector.
“But is it possible that Nigeria becomes a very big country, rather than a developed economy?
The big concern is whether sufficient employment opportunities can be generated to absorb the country’s growing pool of labour and whether this can take place rapidly enough.”
In this regard, Khan said recent evidence was not favourable. She maintained that agriculture has been a strong contributor to the overall growth in the Nigerian economy - but mainly on the basis of more land being farmed, not on the basis of it being done better or more efficiently.
“Nigeria is still missing the productivity gains that would make 7 percent+ growth more sustainable over the long-term.
With reforms, infrastructure development, investment in power, improved education - much will become possible,” she said.
With reforms, infrastructure development, investment in power, improved education - much will become possible,” she said.
Recently, the Minister of State for Power, Hajia Zainab Kuchi raised the alarm that about 120 million Nigerians, being 75 per cent of the entire population, have no access to power supply in the country, a situation which, she said, only huge investment in the power sector could address. According to her, only 40 million Nigerians (about 25 per cent) of the country’s population are currently enjoying electricity supply despite the huge amount of money spent on the sector.
This is coming barely a week after President Goodluck Jonathan presented a mid-term performance report of his administration’s two years in office, in which he indicated remarkable improvement in the power sector.
Kuchi’s words: “Privatization is at its conclusion stage. Come July, what we need to focus on is the commercialisation of the power sector, considering where we are and the fact that we are giving power to only 40 million Nigerians. We have 160 million Nigerians now and we are only giving power to 40 million of that population. What it means is that there are about 120 million Nigerians that are without power and wish to buy power. We are looking forward to energy mix, what we are looking at are ways that will bring in so many other options and the only way we can power Nigeria which we have agreed, is to look forward to IPPs”.
Regulating Population
Jonathan has declared that before promulgating laws controlling birth and population, the government would carry out enough sensitisation. He said: “For us to plan properly, we must manage our population. But it is extremely sensitive; we are extremely religious people, either you are a Christian or Moslem. Both Christians, Moslems, even traditionalists and all the other religions, believe that children are God’s gifts to man. So, it is difficult for you to tell any Nigerian to limit the number children because they are gifts from God and you are not expected to reject God’s gifts.
“It is a very sensitive thing, but we must begin to think about it. We must begin to think about how to manage it. The key thing is that how you will, through your advocacy, come up with plans and programmes to encourage Nigerians to have the number of children they can manage before government comes up with clear policies and guidelines.
“First and foremost is the personal consciousness that people should have the family they can manage. Sometimes, you get to find somebody, in a well-furnished duplex, the husband and wife, they may have two, three four children. The man guarding them has nine children. That is the scenario you have. That means there is a segment of the population that knows that you must have a number that you can manage, but the other segment of the population doesn’t.”
Ladipo stated: “The average woman in Nigeria gives birth to almost six children. And again, if you look at regions in Nigeria, it’s even higher in the North—more than seven children per woman—and in the South a little under five. So, 5.7 is the national average.
“One main reason that fertility is high is the low use of modern contraceptives. Only 10 per cent of our married women of childbearing age use modern contraception right now. In comparison, some of the other countries have up to 77 per cent of married women using modern contraception. Ghana has 19 per cent, India 49, Malaysia 55, Egypt 58 and Brazil 70 per cent.
The Next Census
National Population Commission’s Chairman, Mr Festus Odimegwu told journalists recently in Abuja: “to ensure that the nation’s population is effectivel
y managed across sectoral lines for national development, the commission is leaving no stone unturned in ensuring effective implementation of the National Population policy. To this end, the commission plans to use cutting-edge technologies to drive this vision. In addition, public enlightment and advocacy visits are being carried out to forge national consensus on these population quality improvement issues.”
The NPC chairman reiterated government’s concern on population growth and identified population quality improvement issues to include resolving historical challenges or divisive issues, stopping corruption, impunity and ensuring rule of law, diversifying the economy.
Others, he averred, are ensuring food security, nutrition, sanitation and good health; promoting agricultural transformation and rural development; and ensuring good education at all costs. He said that for an accurate, reliable and acceptable census in 2016 which would aid policy makings, the commission has resolved to conduct a Greenfield, zero-based biometric census.
He continued: “the next census will collect these pieces of information to create a biometrics based national population register and demographic data base which, when linked to the vital registration infrastructure that aims to achieve 100 per cent in terms of completeness and coverage by 2015, will give the nation reliable data as the basis for policy making, government planning, security, budget allocations and development, credible national identity cards, real time on-line voters register.”
He said the compulsory and continuous registration of births and deaths within 60 days and 30 days respectively of occurrence, would provide complementary data to the census particularly within the inter-census period.
Way Foward
Indeed, evidences show that the various submissions do not imply that once population is growing, social services must crumble. On the contrary, robust economic growth, coupled with equitable distribution of income, would lessen the negative consequences of population growth on development as the experiences of China, Indonesia and South Korea demonstrate.
Furthermore, experts believe that corruption and bad governance erode the confidence of the people in their government. This reduces their enthusiasm in the struggle for socio-economic revival and stability.
Although, there appears to be no link between population growth and low savings in Nigeria, the fact remains that as population grows, “capital widening” is needed to maintain existing per capita income and savings, while declining fertility makes it possible for resources to be released for “capital deepening”, which helps the cause of poverty alleviation.
Indeed, Nigeria has a population load factor that outweighs its meager resources to guarantee the welfare of the citizens. Since the basic needs of the people are not adequately catered for, exacerbation of poverty is inevitable as rural decay and urbanization crunch intensify. That is why curbs are needed in Nigerian population growth rate to a level that is supportive of efforts to achieving sustainable development in the country.
Nigeria can also learn from the East Asian Tigers. When they lowered fertility, they experienced incredibly fast development. Around 1960, the development indicators in many East Asian countries were very close to what they are in much of sub-Saharan Africa today. The gross domestic product per capita was low and fertility and population growth rates were high. Many international observers didn’t see how the Asian countries were going to escape poverty.
In Thailand, from the 1960s to the 1990s, fertility levels fell from a little bit higher than where Nigeria is today down to 2.3 births per woman. And during those same years, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita rose very fast. This is not a coincidence. Thailand’s drop in fertility helped to free up resources, which, when properly invested, contributed to rapid economic growth
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